At some point in the near future an eleven-year-old boy stands in a former horse stable in Sudan. The land was once owned by Osama bin Laden. Run out of his native Saudi Arabia for his increasing criticism of the Royal Family the young bin Laden was invited to Sudan. While the discovery of oil on the border between the Muslim north and Christian south resulted in a shaky union the economy was still almost non existent. On only 7 Million USD a month, his share of the family business, bin Laden was the largest industry in Sudan. His terrorist activities however landed Sudan on the US list of state supporters of terrorism and the country was unable to trade with the largest fossil fuel consumer, the US. Poverty and war followed even long after bin Laden fled to Afghanistan. What does this have to do with our boy? We'll return to him later.
How Energy-Use stimulates Economic Growth
James Brown
James Brown of New Mexico State University is the lead researcher on a recent study published in BioScience. The study, Energetic Limits to Economic Growth, tracks the relationship between energy use and economic growth. The study tracked the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and total use of energy, both biological (food) and fossil fuels and alternative energies, of over 220 nations from 1980 to 2003. The data indicates a positive scaler trend between GDP and energy usage by a power order. Much as a biological system has metabolic needs, so too does an economic system have fundamental energy requirements.
Further, the paper argues that energy use facilitates economic development and not the other way around. Reasons range from inference, logical deductions for correlation datum and the fundamental need for and expansion of infrastructure which facilitates economic growth. If we consider a nation's economy a pack of wolves and energy as a population of bunnies then the size of the wolf pack will necessarily be limited by the bunny population. As the bunny population dwindles so too will the wolf pack's ability to grow the pack. Thus, energy is considered a causal factor in economic growth, rather than a result thereof. You can't grow unless you have the “Food” your body needs and to an economy- energy is food. In fact, the paper notes a highly suggestive correlated between energy use as a function of GDP (0.76) and metabolic rate as a function of body mass in living animals (three-fourths).
The Future Quandary: Supply, Demand and Alternatives
With the causal relationship of energy use and economic growth in mind the paper population growth in 2050 is expected to reach over 9 billion, requiring an increase of energy use per capita of over 16 times to maintain a lifestyle like the average US household. If you're of the opinion that global economic growth is desirable then planning for positive scaling energy use is practical. And if you're a pragmatist you'll realize fossil fuels are finite and the proliferation of renewable energy resources is necessarily part of economic planning for both developed and developing countries, particularly in the latter.
However, Brown writes, “Solar, hydro, wind, and tidal renewable energy sources are abundant, but environmental impacts and the time, resources, and expenses required to capture their energy limit their potential. Biofuels may be renewable, but ecological constraints and environmental impacts constrain their contribution More generally, most efforts to develop new sources of energy face economic problems of diminishing returns on energy and monetary investment.”
So nascent alternative energies are insufficient to accommodate the economic growth required to sustain the coming population boom. And while our fossil fuels are copious they are nonetheless finite. Is our eleven year old boy doomed to a Sudan that may never recover from the injuries inflicted by war, terrorism and floundering oil based economy which may collapse under population growth? Maybe not.
Developing Nations "Going Green"
The National Science Foundation published an article on 13 January 2011 on how urban environments promote “green” attitudes. Scientists in China and Taiwan have charted how employment status and rank (if you are employed and how well you are employed) affect people's attitude towards their environment. The article states, “The researchers say companies in big cities likely have resources to promote environmental initiatives, such as education. These companies can organize or provide support for organizing pro-environmental behavior, and encourage--and under many circumstances require--employees to participate in environmental behavior. In addition, people who live in the largest cities are more widely exposed to media reports about the environment than people who live in smaller cities.”
It may be crass synthesis, but if we consider available energy resources as a causal factor in economic growth, and economic growth as a causal factor in environmental awareness then a future for our boy in the field begins to emerge.
Dare to Dream: The Sudan of Tomorrow
The boy is heading to school. The school the boy goes to is built by the oil companies, to train the Sudanese for jobs in the oil plants. The sudden influx of a middle class in one of the most war torn and impoverished nations in the world leaves the Sudanese with an opportunity. The oil industries know that while the reserves in Sudan are copious, they are not infinite and economic fluctuations can cause political unrest. Looking out for their own interests and keen to do business in a safe and stable country the oil companies decide to create secondary economies in Sudan. In a country with few other natural resources they decide technology is a sure bet- and looking into long term sustainability the schools the Oil companies built begin bringing in experts in clean energy. Alternative energy resources fuel a growing middle class’ energy needs and soon standards of living begin to rival America’s comforts. Sudan, under an international microscope, curbs human rights violations to maintain stable international trade.
